Opinion: The Stability Paradox: Why Nigerians can’t feel economic recovery in their wallets
By Prince Chris Azor
In the sleek, air-conditioned conference rooms of Abuja and the boardrooms of international financial institutions, a new narrative is gaining ground: Nigeria’s economy is stabilizing. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reports that headline inflation has now declined for the fourth consecutive time, easing to 21.88% in July. The World Trade Organization’s Director-General has commended the government’s tough reforms, and investors are cautiously optimistic.
But beyond these polished figures lies a harsher reality. In markets across Ogbomosho, Kano, and Port Harcourt, the prices of essential goods tell a different story. A 50kg bag of rice still sells for over N80,000, while a basket of tomatoes remains painfully expensive. Commuters continue to groan under rising transport fares. This contradiction—between official statistics and daily survival—is the stability paradox: a macroeconomic picture that seems to be improving, while the lived experiences of millions of Nigerians deteriorate.
The paradox arises from a common misunderstanding of inflation trends. A declining inflation rate does not mean that prices are falling; it simply means they are rising at a slower pace. The year-on-year figure of 21.88% reflects the erosion of the naira’s value by nearly a quarter compared to last year. Even more worrying, the month-on-month inflation rate quickened to 1.99%, suggesting that household pressures are intensifying, not easing.
The pain is most acute in food prices. Food inflation, which disproportionately affects the majority of Nigerians who spend most of their income on basic staples, has risen to 22.74%. The “Jollof Index,” a civic-tech innovation by SBM Intelligence, puts this crisis into context: the cost of cooking a pot of jollof rice has surged by 153% since 2023. For minimum wage earners, preparing a single pot now consumes as much as 40% of their monthly pay. This is not stability, it’s silent desperation.
Government policy, particularly the Central Bank’s high interest rate of 27.5%, has been deployed as the main weapon against inflation. While it may attract foreign investment and slow down spending, in practice it cripples small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), the backbone of job creation. Banks prefer risk-free lending to the government rather than extending credit to entrepreneurs. A young graduate hoping to start an agro-processing venture finds credit costs prohibitive, even as the nation cries out for increased production to lower food prices.
Recognizing the paradox is only the beginning. What Nigeria needs is a pragmatic, multi-layered strategy that addresses the real drivers of cost and restores trust between government and citizens. A National Emergency on Food Security should be declared, bringing together security agencies, farmers, market operators and Civil Society under a task force with a clear 90-day mandate. This body must ensure farmlands are protected from banditry, critical rural roads are repaired, and post-harvest losses, currently nearing 50% are drastically reduced through better storage and transportation infrastructure.
At the grassroots, local governance must be revived. The collapse of the local government system has left Communities without effective and efficient service delivery. A social protection mechanism through conditional grant scheme, should be established for all 774 local governments to run weekly affordable food markets. By partnering with farmers’ cooperatives, these markets would bypass exploitative middlemen, offering relief to consumers while guaranteeing farmers better returns.
The Central Bank must also rethink its approach. By adopting Differentiated Cash Reserve Requirements, it can reward banks that channel credit into agriculture, agro-processing, and SMEs at single-digit rates. This would make banks true partners in production, not just lenders to government.
Finally, rebuilding trust requires honest and accessible communication. Citizens deserve to know and understand how economic decisions affect their daily lives. A weekly “Understanding the Economy” campaign delivered through public enlightenment, infographics, radio/TV programmes, and local languages, would help bridge the gap between policy and reality. When citizens feel informed and consulted, social cohesion strengthens.
True economic stability cannot be measured only in statistical reports or foreign investors’ confidence. It is measured in whether a parent can feed their children without fear, or whether a young entrepreneur can access resources at affordable rates to build a business. The progress recorded so far is at best a first step. The real victory will come when every Nigerian feels the recovery in their wallets, Communities and livelihoods.
That’s the stability that truly matters.
*Prince Chris Azor is a Citizen Advocate and President, International Peace and Civic Responsibility Centre (IPCRC).
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